Why CA’s Political Polls Are So Often Wrong — Until They’re Not

Ask yourself the following question: If every one of California’s 10.4 million registered Democrats and 5.1 million Independents actually knew Tom Steyer, Katie Porter and Matt Mahan, which of them do you expect would collect the most votes? The answer: Mahan, who is the most likable and whose politics of demanding results and accountability most align with the majority of those voters. Yet political polls currently have Steyer and Porter in the lead. That’s because most Californians haven’t met Matt. That’s about to change.

While ~90% of California voters know Steyer and Porter, fewer than 40% currently know Mahan. That percentage is about to sharply increase as ~$20 million is spent over the next three weeks to introduce Matt and also viewers will see him in televised debates.

Ballots don’t drop until May 4, after which voters will have until June 2 to vote. Most voters won’t vote until after the middle of May. I wouldn’t trust a poll until then.